Team India on the cusp of greatness

India V England test series: a contest too close to call.

Team India is on the cusp of greatness. Opportunity to play two very strong and difficult opponents on their home turf in next 6 months, brings opportunities to shut their detractors and critics who have consistently rubbished its no.1 test cricket ranking claim at the throne of the test team by calling them tigers at home, lambs overseas. There is some softening in that stance though ; now they call them tigers in subcontinent conditions! In all fairness, there is some truth in it. While their journey to the top ranking test team came during four successive series wins at home including 13 tests winning all but two (one draw and one loss). However, as soon as they travelled to South Africa, the usual failings against pace and bounce surfaced and the critics were up with their customary I-told-you-so. To their credit, they came back strongly in the test series, but it was too late to erase that familiar sense of deja vu!

While India have beaten England, West Indies and New Zealand travelling, they are yet to take a series in Australia and South Africa. This was the motivation at the start of 2018 in South Africa, as it was the start of the most difficult passage for team India. However their usual poor and almost ridiculous preparation for significant series caught them out. As Virat kohli's team prepares to go into a big 5 test series against strong English side, they have one less excuse to blame their potential failure upon. They have been in England for more than a month and have already given themselves a reasonable start by dominating T20 series. England came back strongly in the odi series by turning the tables on their nemesis in the form of two Indian spinners, who looked unplayable. This has emphasised one thing. This series will be a hard fought, arm wrestle, a slug fest, a mouth watering contest and very hard to predict who the winner could be. While England is always hard to beat at home, Indian team has perhaps most balanced bowling attack since 1986 when Kapil's team dominated the three test series winning 2-0. It covers all the bases with 6 good pace bowlers and three good spinners. There are three pace bowlers who consistently bowl at over 140k, one swing bowler who could be very handy in typical English conditions. The spinners are all different with the left arm Chinamen already proving a handful in the limited over games. If English curators prefer to keep a lot of grass Indian pace bowling unit can test English batters like they did the home batsmen in south Africa. If the conditions can be dry as it seems likely due to prevailing weather conditions  Indian spinners can be handful in second dig. England team management knows this so they will depend upon their batsmen's better experience of their home condition against pace and hope to rattle the relatively unsuccessful Indian batting line-up with their swing and pace. Their best chance at beating the number 1 team is their pace bowling unit's proven record in home conditions ; the wickets will definately start greenish. For them, the key will be for their batting unit to counter the Indian bowling threat and hope to keep Virat kohli and his batting unit's modest batting record in England unchanged.

Predicting the outcome of the series is tough. I sense it is upon the success of Indian batting. There is no doubt that Indian bowling is capable to take 20 wickets, critical thing is will kohli and his batsmen provide the cushion of 350+ totals consistently to their bowling attack? If they can, india will take the series. For that to happen, kohli will need to take the english bull by the horn, score runs in the only country where his record doesn't reflect the incredible talent he possesses. If he succeeds in taming English conditions and bowling, india will win. His success will be required for his batting unit to fire ; Ajinkya Rehane, Murli Vijay, Shikhar Dhawan, Cheteshwar Pujara, KL Rahul all are capable batsmen but except Rehane and Vijay to some extent none has been even reasonably successful in english conditions; that's perhaps one thing english team management will be pinning their hopes upon.
Last series, India started on a winning note at lords but conceded their advantage through insipid batting and more importantly dropping crucial catches in the slip cordon. They will be hoping to improve that part of their game. This will be very close so a couple of catches dropped or snared can be the difference between the two teams.

Looking at unfortunate beginning for team India in the form of injuries to their two key bowlers, Bhuvi and Bumrah, it won't be surprising if india take time to get off the ground. Having 5 tests is a benifit for traditionally slow starting team like India. It will be a difficult decision for kohli and team selectors to pick the batting line up for the first test  I think following will be the starting XI at Birmingham on 1st aug:
Vijay, Dhawan, Pujara, Kohli, Rehane, Kartik, Pandya, Ashwin, Yadav, Shami and Ishan. If the wickets look dry underneath and no chances of rain, Shami can be replaced by Kuldeep. I think this will be the best team that can not only take 20 wickets but also score runs. I will stick with Dhawan; he has x factor and if he gets in, he can score quickly and dominate any bowling giving players like kohli the cushion he will need to not feel the pressure of scoring as soon as he arrives at the crease. Vijay, pujara and Rehane are stayers so stroke players like him, virat and Pandya can play with some freedom. On paper India looks a very balanced side ; the only doubt being unproven batting unit in english conditions!

My prediction is India will still come empty handed with the series drawn at 2-2, one test being drawn.. 

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